The coalition has won the election.
Whilst it has been a close run thing, given the attacks thrown at the Government from the left and the right, and the chaos and venom created at polling booths by multiple groups not even on the ballot, this is a big deal.
Could the campaign have been better? Of course. There are always lessons to learn.
But don’t forget that Menzies won in 1961 by 1 seat, and went on to increase his majority in 1963.
It seems the coalition will now have 76 or 77 seats. This is 4-5 seats less than generally expected. Part of this difference is the shock result in Tasmania, when all three sitting MPs were gone by 7pm on election night. Lindsay was also an unexpected loss, as was Longman in QLD. Effectively, those 5 are the difference between a close result, and a very good result.
The Government lost several seats in Western Sydney, but also held seats such as Banks and Reid that were by no means certain.
It held on to the inner-Brisbane seats of Brisbane and Petrie, the former following the resignation of the sitting MP. Indeed, it’s very possible that when counting finishes, Longman will be the only coalition loss in QLD.
Indeed, there has been no “wipe out” in any State, with Labor picking off low hanging fruit in each area, rather than seeing any one state swing strongly to them.
And the Liberal Party again showed it is the future, with the first, second and third openly gay members elected to the House of Representatives being Liberals.
Although there has been a sense of unease over the last week, if we counted our votes as they do in the UK, with every seat declared by morning, Australia would have woken to a re-elected, majority Turnbull Government, with no hint of instability.
The last time a Government was re-elected with a majority was 2004.
These are difficult times, and governing is hard. The levers that governments have available to pull rarely provide instant gratification, especially on economic policy.
It only takes 200 mentions for something to “trend” on Twitter and be picked up and treated as mainstream by the news, however niche the issue actually is.
So again, for a government to be re-elected at all is a big deal.
Now, to mention my absolute number 1 biggest frustration with the commentary on the campaign: everyone keeps saying how they want their Government and their Prime Minister to think beyond the 24 news cycle, and to have a plan for the future that goes beyond winning the next election.
Malcolm Turnbull and his Government did exactly this; they outlined the direction of fiscal policy for the next ten years, and discussed an agenda for a nation that cannot rely on a manufacturing industry, and cannot rely solely on primary industry. He sought to answer the question “where is the next generation of jobs coming from?”
This was exactly what I wanted to hear from my Prime Minister.
Talking heads now tell me that it failed to “connect with ordinary voters”, and didn’t have enough “what’s it in for them”. Well, in raw political terms this might be true. But isn’t that sort of raw politics over agenda setting what previous Prime Ministers have been criticised for?
I supported the Turnbull agenda before the election, and I certainly support it now.
Finally, we have heard a lot about the disaffected on the right on this election.
My first very strong comment is this: nobody voted Labor or Green, because the Liberal Party was not right wing enough.
To abandon the liberal centre of Australian politics – for I firmly believe that the centre of Australian politics is liberal, mixing values of freedom and small government with pragmatism and compassion – would be to abandon Government.
There are, in my mind, two distinct types of disaffected. The “Bolt Right” and the “Hanson Right”; both are groups of the electorate with valid concerns, who feel left out of mainstream debate. As a party, we must ensure that they do not feel ignored, patronised, or abandoned.
However, that doesn’t mean that we have to concede every point of their agenda either, because a successful party of Government must be in touch with modernity.
In the case of the Bolt Right – genuine, philosophical conservatives – this is especially hard, as the debate must soon move beyond several of their key policy shibboleths. Same sex marriage will happen; every day that it does not is a day public debate is anchored and cannot move forward. Similarly, environmental policy must move forward to address the needs of modern society, and this means all sides moving beyond the stagnant debate on climate change and embracing a broader environmental agenda.
Perhaps these are issues that, like a band aid, just need to be ripped from the body politic so all can move on, even if things sting a little for some?
However, on issues of free speech and trade, there is much more common ground between the liberals and the conservatives, and those areas should be highlighted, and celebrated.
As for the Hanson right, who would seem to be an Australian representation of the American Trump vote, or the UK’s UKIP, we must understand that their fears are real, and genuinely meant. We must not be afraid to use some of their language when debating complicated issues of cultural significance. Certainly we must ensure them that they are not politically incorrect to want to celebrate Christmas in schools, or to call out the links between some terrorism, and some aspects of Islam.
However, our principles of tolerance, freedom of religion, and common moral decency mean that our leaders must also reject anything that goes beyond honest concern and becomes racism. We cannot ban mosques any more than we can ban churches. The demand for Halal food should de decided by the free market; as long as people want it, shops will sell it. If shops can’t make a living selling halal, they’ll stop selling it.
Our Prime Minister is right to celebrate religious festivals with Islamic leaders, and doing so does not mean that he cannot also call out extremist Islam.
Can our dialogue be better? Yes; and it has to be.
But Australia is at its best as a modern, liberal and compassionate society. Out Government should continue to reflect that, and I believe this Prime Minister is the best to achieve that.
Congratulations to him on his re-election.
