Well, I’ve been putting this off for a while, but time for my comments and predictions on the US elections happening tomorrow (Australian time).

America

First, a general comment on the state of politics in America.

I’ve visited America four times in the last six years (and heading back there again in May-June next year), and travelled to 23 states plus DC. I’ve stayed in some of the big cities, but also a lot of small towns a long way from anywhere, mostly travelling by road through many of these larger states.

What I’ve found is a unique sense that the country has real problems with their economy and their society, and no one believes anyone has a clue how to fix it. Most people haven’t had a pay rise in years, have seen their employment become less secure, and their services become worse. So it’s understandable that there’s a hankering for the imagined America of ‘Happy Days’, with high employment, nice haircuts, and everything seeming nice and simple.

At the same time, in my lifetime there have been six Presidents. Go back another ten years and there have been eight.

Many of those eight – perhaps all of them – have been good men. Certainly many were well qualified, others highly intelligent. Yet of those eight, I’d contend that only one – Ronald Reagan – had a truly successful Presidency.

Nixon started well with strong results in economic and foreign affairs, but ended in resignation. Ford failed to be elected in his own right. Carter struggled on almost every policy front, as well as struggling to provide strong leadership, and lost his re-election bid in a landslide (although his legacy of the Carter Doctrine and Camp David Accords is worthy of note).

Reagan won the cold war, got America out of its prolonged economic and foreign policy slump, and inspired the nation that it really was “morning again in America”. Politically he won two terms in landslides (winning 49 of the 50 states on his re-election in 1984), and got his Vice President elected to succeed him (the first time this had happened since Andrew Jackson’s Vice President Martin Van Buren won in 1836).

Bush Snr was a highly qualified, experienced and honourable man with a strong foreign policy record, but who failed on the domestic policy front and lost re-election. Bill Clinton deserves some credit for balancing the budget, and undertaking serious welfare reform. However, his foreign and military policies were lamentable, and his whole Presidency was continually dogged by scandal, and his eventually impeachment over the Lewinsky affair. Notably, unlike Reagan, Clinton couldn’t get his Vice President – Al Gore – elected.

I could go on. I could go backwards to Johnson and Kennedy. But I won’t.

The point is that there’s a strong argument that the Presidency simply isn’t working, and is a 1780s constitutional system trying to work in a 21^st century world.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that after the GFC, it was the strong single member Parliamentary democracies – Australia, the UK, Canada – that emerged quickly, along with New Zealand. Proportional Parliamentary systems such as in Germany and Ireland (and New Zealand, who I’ve already mentioned) were not far behind.

Each of these systems has the executive, led by the Prime Minister/Chancellor/Taoiseach, assume power because they have the confidence of (and generally control of) the legislature.

My point is that Prime Ministers that lead a Parliament can get things done.

In contrast, systems with executive Presidents separate from the Legislature have struggled in a fast moving world.

The President of the United States can do nothing more than suggest a budget to Congress, a body that often struggles to agree between its two Houses, let alone with the President. The same goes for any other piece of legislation.

At the same time, in the US Senate you need 60 of the 100 votes to break a filibuster and have any realistic chance of getting contentious Bills passed.

The judicial system is highly politicised, with appointments to the senior courts (and indeed the senior public service) often blocked in the Senate for months.

The House of Representatives serve for only two years, so are on nearly constant campaign cycles, needing to continuously raise money for an election just around the corner (a contrast to the five year terms of the UK, or four year terms in Canada).

At the same time, House seat boundaries are decided by the local State Legislatures, often resulting in massive gerrymandering (imagine Daniel Andrews in charge of deciding the boundaries for Victoria’s Federal seats…!). As a result, very few House seats are truly competitive between the parties, so members are more concerned with winning their local primary by appealing to the hard right/left of their party, than appealing to the centre at the general election.

All of this is a long way of saying that it’s my view that the US system is not fit for purpose in 2016, can’t fix the problems, and this leads to extraordinary feelings of discontent in the population, who hanker for a romanticised golden age.

 

Anyway, my predictions…

 

President:

Bottom line, I think Mrs Clinton will win.

I’m basing this on a combination of national polls, state poll averages, state poll trends in the last few days, and also considering the demographics and ground games of the two candidates.

Either candidate requires 270 Electoral College votes to become the President-elect. This is how I think the day will go… (and what to watch for).

First states close at 11am Melbourne time.

Several should be called for both candidates quite quickly (certainly Kentucky will be called for Trump).

If there’s a close race in Georgia, or even Indiana or South Carolina, then it’s likely going to be a good night for the Democrats (Indiana was won by Obama in 2008, but Romney in 2012. Republic Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence is the outgoing Governor there).

Of this batch I have New Hampshire going for Clinton, but wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t (and unless the race is very tight, the four electoral votes here won’t sway the result).

Virginia (home of the Democrat’s Vice Presidential Candidate Tim Kaine) should go for Clinton.

Florida is the big State to start coming in at 11am, and the best early indication of how the election is going. A win here for either candidate could be decisive. Reports are that the Clinton campaign has 66 field offices in Florida compared to 6 for Trump. The State will be decided in the swing counties in the centre of the state, between the Republican panhandle, and the Democrat strongholds around Miami. I’m predicting Florida will go for Clinton.

 

At 11:30am, 3 more states close.

West Virginia will go for Trump.

I’m predicting the evolving demographics of North Carolina (a truly beautiful state) means it will go for Clinton.

However, I think that Trump will win Ohio (if he doesn’t, he’s finished).

 

17 States close at Midday

Most of the small New England States will be quickly called for Clinton, along with Illinois.

A number of southern and central states (Kansas, Tennessee, Texas etc) will be called for Trump.

Of the states to watch:

Michigan should go for Clinton, but if Trump wins here in the Midwest, he’s likely on course for a win, and possibly a big win.

Pennsylvania is notionally a swing state, but Trump has never been ahead here. I’m predicting Clinton will hold it. With 20 electoral votes however, this is one of Trump’s few paths to victory.

 

12:30pm

Bill Clinton’s home state of Arkansas closes, and will likely be called for Trump straight away.

 

1pm – 10 more states close

A number of small western states will be called for Trump – Nebraska, the Dakotas, Wyoming etc – but New York with 29 votes (and the home State of both candidates) will be called for Clinton.

I’m predicting Colorado will go for Clinton, as will New Mexico.

If there’s a Trump upset coming Wisconsin might be in play, but more likely will go for Clinton.

 

5 States close at 2pm

Iowa I’m giving to Trump.

Nevada I’m giving to Clinton.

Utah however I’m giving to the independent candidate Evan McMullan, a Republican Mormon from Utah. Several polls have suggested that Republicans in Utah (many of whom are Mormons as well) won’t vote for Trump, and having a local on the ballot to vote for gives them an alternate.

Of course, if neither candidate gets to 270 but McMullan wins 6 votes in Utah, the House of Representatives would have to decide the election between the top 3 candidates (and the Senate would elect the Vice President).

 

3pm – election likely called

The west coast closes now. There are 78 safe Clinton votes in these states.

What that means is that if before 3pm Clinton has gotten to 192 votes or higher, then she’s already won, and the election will be called at 3pm when California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii close, and their 78 votes are immediately added to her tally.

Idaho will go Trump, as will Alaska at 5pm.

 

So my total Electoral Votes are:

Clinton: 323
Trump: 209
Other: 6

 

The Senate

Some big names contesting the Senate this time around.

I have John McCain and Rob Portman in Arizona and Ohio winning their seats easily.

Marco Rubio should also hold his seat in Florida.

Of the tighter races, I think Kelly Ayotte can hold New Hampshire, but it’ll be close.

North Carolina is another tight one, but I’m giving it to Richard Burr.

That gets the Republicans to 50 and the Democrats to 50, meaning whoever is Vice President would cast the tiebreaking vote for control of the Senate. I’m pretty confident the Republicans can get to 50.

However, I’m also going to give Joe Heck the open seat in Nevada, so that’s 51 Republicans; Heck in Nevada could well decide the Senate.

I think Democrat Russ Feingold, who lost in 2010, will win back his Wisconsin seat this time.

I’m giving the Republicans Indiana as well, however Evan Bayh (quite a famous name in Indiana politics) could just as easily win.

So I’m predicting the Republicans hold the Senate 52-48, but those last 2-3 races are very close.

Control of the Senate is perhaps the most interesting thing to watch tomorrow.

 

Governors

Of the close Governors races, I’m giving North Carolina to the Democrats after Pat McCrory has had a difficult first term.

I also think Chris Sununu will win New Hampshire in a close race.

 

House of Representatives

I haven’t got time to go through every close race, but I’m predicting the Republicans led by Paul Ryan will win 229 seats, to the Democrats 206. If that happens, Democrat Leader Nancy Pelosi will be under pressure to retire, after 14 years in the role, and having won only two elections of her 7 elections as Leader.