With the US Presidential election this year, I’ve noticed that even more than ever most social media comments on outcomes are less a case of analysis of likely results, and more a statement of desired outcome dressed as a prediction. So, here’s a few posts that will aim to pull back on that a little.

Today, Part 1, the Democrat Primaries.

Candidates will compete in elections across the 50 states, DC, and other territories to win delegates to the nominating convention. 1,990 delegates assures a candidate of the nomination on the first ballot.

The Iowa caucuses are less than a month away, on Feb 3.
The New Hampshire Primary is Feb 11.
The Nevada Caucuses Feb 22.
The South Carolina Primary is Feb 29.

Below is a chart of the winners of Iowa/New Hamphsire/South Carolina since the modern system developed. Those who went on to be their party’s nominee are highlighted, and sitting Presidents seeking re-election are coloured grey.

There are essentially two ways to win the nomination. The first is to be the clear national leader, and convert that into multiple quick wins. If this occurs again, former Vice President Biden must be the favourite, presently being a full 10 points ahead of the rest of the field in the RCP polling average.

The other path is to slog it out state to state.

As you’ll see, every single nominee as won at least one of the states on the chart, oftentimes two.

The present leading candidates in those states are:
Iowa – Buttigieg
NH – Sanders
SC – Biden

Elizabeth Warren is polling 3rd nationally, however, she’s also polling 4th in Iowa, 4th in NH, and a very distant 2nd in SC. If Warren can’t win one of these Feb contests, I don’t see a path to her winning the nomination.

The ability to stay in the contest (and indeed, to organise and get out the vote for elections) depends on cash. The 4th quarter fundraising numbers for the top 4 candidates was:

Bernie Sanders: $34.5 million
Pete Buttigieg: $24.7 million
Joe Biden: $22.7 million
Elizabeth Warren: $21.2 million

This suggests if the early races split, there could be a longer fight, with candidates able to stay in the race.

HOWEVER!

March 3 is Super Tuesday. This includes races in California, Texas, Massachusetts, Maine, Missestoa, Vermont, and eight other (mostly southern) states. A sweep by a candidate in these (presumably Biden, given this perceived strength in the south) could effectively end the whole process.

Polls in these states at the moment are basically meaningless, as voters will shift based on the winners in the early states.

So, Biden remains the clear favourite.

If Buttigieg can win Iowa (polling leader) AND New Hampshire (polling second) its possible that the race becomes a “north v south” race between him an Biden, with Sanders winning the odd race here and there.

On the other hand if Sanders can knock Buttigieg out, that probably clears the field for Biden.

The only path for Sanders is that he wins the early states well enough to be a contender, but not SO well that clears the field; I contend Sanders does better in a split race.

Of course, the election watcher’s dream is that NO candidate can get the 1,990 delegates to lock in the nomination ahead of the convention, and its fought out old school on the floor (cf The West Wing season 6).

Is there a scenario where this happens? Sure. But parties have a way of getting things down to a two horse race, which makes the probability of one candidate getting a majority much higher.

A couple of general points:

Different states have different rules on who can vote. Some allow only registered Democrats, some allow registered Democrats AND independents, and some allow anyone to vote for the Democrat primary. Given there is not seriously contested Republican Primary, a lot of swinging voters/independents and some Republicans will vote in the races. This is an important balance to the “the Democrat activists have all swing to the left” contention.

Also, understand the Bloomberg is NOT on the ballot in NH, Nevada or SC, making Iowa his ONLY shot at an early win.

Final point: primary races are fluid. One really bad debate performance can end a candidate (ask Marco Rubio). Likewise an upset win can keep a candidate in long past expectation (cf Rick Santorum).

But again, multiple second places don’t get you the nomination. For a candidate to have a path, they really need an early WIN.