With the US Presidential election this year, I’ve noticed that even more than ever most social media comments on outcomes are less a case of analysis of likely results, and more a statement of desired outcome dressed as a prediction. So, here’s a few posts that will aim to pull back on that a little.
(Part 1, the Democrat Primaries, was posted here: dksblog.com/2020/01/23/us-elections-part-1-the-democrat-primaries)
Today, Part 2 – the general election.
Let’s start with a few basic facts about the election in November between President Trump and his Democrat opponent:
- Anyone who says they KNOW the result of the election is lying.
- Is Trump far enough ahead in the polls to say a win for him is likely? No.
- Is Trump far enough behind in the polls to say a loss for him is likely? No.
- Anyone who says otherwise is either lying, ignorant, barracking, or some combination thereof. They’re also likely forecasting on the basis of their own views. And there’s nothing wrong with that, but it IS just a guess.
The reality is that the US remains a divided nation, and any win by either candidate in November is likely to be narrow by historical standards.
First, before anyone says “the polls were totally wrong in 2016” its important to remember that’s not quite correct. The national polls in 2016 predicted Clinton would win the popular vote by about 2-4 points. She did win the national popular vote by 2.1 points (or about 2.8m votes). However, several state based polls were out by a few points, leading to predictions of the Electoral College to be wrong (and a lot of people forgot our good friend “margin of error”).
Trump won with 46% of the vote, and by a margin of 38 electoral votes.
If the vote distribution across key states were PERFECT, Trump could probably win re-election with 44% of the vote, but more likely needs 45-46% at least.
Polling averages presently have him at:
Vs Biden – 44.2%
Vs Buttigieg – 44.8%
Vs Sanders – 45%
Vs Warren – 45.7%
Ie, Trump is exactly on the tipping point of too close to call.
And this is before there is an actual Democrat nominee running a proper campaign.
As above, the Democrats need to shift 38 electoral votes into their column. States in play (with 2016 margin are):
Michigan – 16 Votes – 0.2% margin
Pennsylvania – 20 Votes – 0.7% margin
Wisconsin – 10 votes – 0.8% margin
Flip those three with a 0.8% swing and Trump loses by 278-260.
Even if Trump can shift the Democrat’s most marginal state (New Hampshire, 0.4% margin) he loses 274-264.
The Democrat’s next most marginal state is Minnesota, and if Trump flips that he’s likely held the other mid-western states and winning easily.
Next on the list are:
Florida – 29 votes – 2.2% margin
Arizona – 11 votes – 3.5% margin
North Carolina – 15 votes – 5.1% margin
Further up the chain are Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa. But I suspect if the Democrats win any of those they’ve already won comfortably.
So let’s look at those states in the polls:
Michigan – Biden leads Trump by 6.5% on average. Sanders and Warren also lead.
Pennsylvania – Biden leads Trump by 7% on average. Sanders and Warren also lead.
Wisconsin – Biden leads Trump by 3.7% on average. Sanders also leads. Trump beats Warren by 1%.
Florida – Biden leads Trump by 2.7% on average. Sanders is tied. Trump leads Warren.
Arizona – Biden leads Trump by 0.3% on average. Trump leads Sanders by 5% and Warren by 2%.
North Carolina – Biden leads Trump by 3.4% on average. Sanders also leads, Trump beats Warren.
Georgia and Ohio there isn’t enough polling data to make a credible comment. In Texas Trump leads Biden by 0.5%. In Iowa Trump leads all candidates by 3% or more.
On the Democrat side in New Hampshire Biden leads Trump by 6%.
Now, this does NOT mean that I’m predicting Biden will defeat Trump 333-205.
Or that Sanders beats Trump 278-260.
Or that Trump will beat Warren 270-268.
But to reverse my questions above:
Do the Democrat candidates presently lead in the polls in enough states that they COULD win? Yes.
Are they so far ahead in enough states that they probably WILL win? No. Not at all.
We don’t know who the candidate will be. Or their running mate.
We haven’t had the national conventions.
And the formal campaign on both sides hasn’t started.
Plus… MARGIN OF ERROR.
So none of the above matters.
And my aim is not to make any prediction.
My aim is to prove that this race is WIDE open and anyone who says it’s not is talking emotional rubbish!
To further this, in the 2018 House of Representatives election, the popular vote went:
Republican – 44.8%
Democrat – 53.4%
A lead like that would certainly win the Electoral College for the Democrats.
In 2018 Senate races in key states:
Michigan – Democrats won 52%-46%
Pennsylvania – Democrats won 56%-43%
Wisconsin – Democrats won 55%-45%
Florida – Republicans won 50.06%-49.94%
Arizona – Democrats won 50%-48%
North Carolina – no election
Again, all this proves is that key states are in play. Nothing more.
There is a narrative that Trump has had enough wins to keep the 2016 Trump voters happy, and the Democrats are too far to the left, so Trump wins easily. That is possible.
There is a narrative that a Democrat who isn’t Clinton gets swing voters and anti-Trump Republicans who stayed home in 2016 out to vote, and the Democrats win. That is also possible.
We don’t know.
The only thing we know is that the election IS in play.
And I await comments on this post from people who have totally missed the whole point of the exercise 🙂
[Note – all averages as per Real Clear Politics]
dksblog.com 