With people doing a lot of reading, I decided to present my 100(ish) top books from my bookshelves.

Rules are:
– It must be sitting there on my shelves!
– No more than two pure author.

A must as possible the covers used are the ones on my shelves.

This is clearly just a sample – hundreds more on the shelves I could have included! And obviously this is my collection, so skews to my personal interests…

Topics covered:
– British Monarchs
– UK Politics
– US Politics
– Israeli Politics
– Australian Politics
– General Non Fiction
– Science & Philosphy
– Sport
– General – Autobiographical
– General Fiction
– Science Fiction
– Science Fiction related Biographical

I hope you get some ideas!

 

Non Fiction

British Monarchs

King John: Treachery, Tyranny, and the Road to Magna Carta
Marc Morris

This one cuts beneath the assumed knowledge and myth and presents a well researched and balanced account of the period.

 

Edward II: The Unconventional King
Kathryn Warner

All Warner’s history books are excellent, but this is a definitive work on Edward II.

 

Richard III & the Princes in the Tower
Alison Weir

Weir is another wonderful author of English history, and this is another book that uses proper research to explore a controversial set of events.

 

Henry VIII: King & Court
Alison Weir

Edward VI: The Lost King of England
Chris Skidmore

A pivotal but underwritten period of English history.

Elizabeth
David Starkey

If you read one Starkey book, make it this one. He goes into detail on the early life of Elizabeth I.

 

Victoria The Queen
Julia Baird

 

UK Politics

The Tories and the Nation State 1922-97
Alan Clark

If you want to understand the Conservative Party and Europe, read this.

The Prime Minister
Peter Hennessy

A neat summary of post-war leaders of Britain, and how the office has evolved.

William Pitt the Younger
William Hague

An incredibly good piece of work on a political hero of mine.

 

Robert Peel
Douglas Hurd

Gladstone
Roy Jenkins

Another excellent and well written book on one of my political heroes.

Churchill
Roy Jenkins

The best book I’ve personally read on the subject.

Rab Butler: The Best Prime Minister We Never Had?
Michael Jago

Decades of Conservative Party government explored through the influential MP who twice just missed out on being Prime Minister.

Downing Street Diary
Bernard Donoghue

An insider look at Harold Wilson’s time as Labour PM in the 1970s.

Jeremy Thorpe
Michael Bloch

Scandalous!

The Path to Power/The Downing Street Years
Margaret Thatcher

Combined one of the very best political autobiographies out there. The Path to Power is an especially insightful look at the Conservative party between the 1950s and 1980s, and developed of Thatcher as a politician and leader.

The Alan Clark Diaries
Alan Clark

Witty and honest and interesting; a look inside the Thatcher/Major Governments from MP and junior Minister.

A Political Suicide
Norman Fowler

Senior Cabinet Minister gives his take on the decline and end of the Conservative Government in the 1990s.

John Major: The Autobiography
John Major

The Third Man
Peter Mandalson

The best book I’ve yet read on the Blair-Brown years of the Labour Party, including the lead up under Kinnock.

Coalition Diaries
David Laws

 

US Politics

Second Acts
Mark K. Updegrove

This is a fascinating look at the role of US Presidents after the Presidency.

John Adams
David McCullough

Definitive work on a lesser known founding father.

Truman
David McCullough

One of the best Presidential biographies I’ve read.

Kennedy & Nixon
Christopher Matthews

This is a really interesting book which looks and the close friendship and parallels between these men in their time before the Presidency.

An Unfinished Life: John F Kennedy
Robert Dallek

Dallek is one of the best writers, and this is the best book on JFK I’ve yet read.

RFK: A Candid Biography
C. David Haymann

Simply one of my favourite books.

Flawed Giant: Lyndon Johnson
Robert Dallek

Another great work from Dallek, and the best book on LBJ, in my opinion.

In Retrospect
Robert S. McNamara

When the Centre Held
Donald Rumsfeld

Rumsfeld gives an honest and inside view of an overlooked President.

Jimmy Carter
Peter G. Bourne

Another favourite of mine, this is a work that tracks Carter from State politics to President and beyond, with a detailed look at primaries, elections, the Camp David accords, etc.

Ronald Reagan: An American Life

Read it.

George Bush: The Life of a Lone Star Yankee
Herbert S Parmet

The definitive work on arguably the most qualified President of the 20th century.

41: A Portrait of My Father
George W Bush

Clinton: The President they Deserve
Martin Walker

A bare and honest account of Clinton making it to the Presidency.

Primary Colors
Anonymous

Technically fiction, but a barely disguised story of Clinton’s primary campaign in 1992.

Inventing Al Gore
Bill Turque

Written in the lead up for Gore’s 2000 campaign, and interesting look at Democrat politics in the 80s and 90s.

Shadow
Bob Woodward

Woodward is an amazing author with incredible access. If you read just one of his books, read this one.

Decision Points
George W Bush

Bush chooses not to write a standard life story, instead framing his memoirs around several key decisions and leadership moments.

Bush At War
Bob Woodward

Woodward explores in detail the early years of the war on terror.

In My Time
Dick Cheney

The sheer expanse of Cheney’s role in Government over four decades makes this a really interesting read.

Worth the Fighting For
John McCain

An honest look at McCain’s life and his thoughts on his failed 2000 Presidential run, as well as the best assessment on US foreign policy I’ve read.

Double Down
Halperin & Heilemann

Account of the 2012 Obama and Romney campaigns. Game Change by the same authors is also very worth a read.

The Shortest Way Home
Pete Buttigieg

Mayor Pete!

 

Israeli Politics

The Prime Ministers
Yehuda Avner

Ally
Michael B Oren

A close look at US-Israeli relations.

 

Australian Politics

Head of State
David Smith

THE work on the office of Governor-General and all the debate which flows from it.

The End of Certainty
Paul Kelly

THE book on Australian politics in the 1980s.

Menzies’ Child
Gerard Henderson

A look at the founding and development of the Liberal Party in each state.

The Menzies Era
John Howard

The Chance of Politics
Paul Hasluck

Posthumously published extracts from former Governor-General and Foreign Minister’s private assessments of other politicians.

Hayden
Bill Hayden

This is a very well written insight into ALP politics in the 60s, 70s, and early 80s former the former ALP leader and Governor-General.

As it Happened
John Button

After a decade as Senate Leader in the Hawke and Keating governments, this is a very entertaining autobiography!

Keating: The Inside Story
John Edwards

Its really very good.

The Kennett Revolution
Brian Costar & Nick Economou

An academic look at the Kennett Government and Victorian politics in the 1990s.
(My copy signed of course by both authors, and Jeff!)

Lazarus Rising
John Howard

Amazing.

Loner: Insider a Labor Tragedy
Bernard Lagan

Easily the best work on the 2004 election.

Betrayal: The Underbelly of Australian Labor
Simon Benson

This is an incredible and brutal insight into NSW Labor politics, and beyond.

General Non Fiction

The Defence of the Realm: The Authorised History of MI5
Christopher Andrew

Eichmann
David Cesarani

Stalin’s Englishman
Andrew Lownie

A look at the Cambridge spies.

East & West
Chris Patten

Written more than twenty years ago, but perhaps more relevant that ever?

Line of Fire
Darren Goodsir

The detailed account of the Roger Rogerson/Michael Drury shooting and related events in the NSW police.

Ten Caesars
Barry Strauss

Of all the books on Roman history I have, this is the one to start with.

Twentieth Century Speeches
Brian MacArthur (editor)

 

Science & Philosophy

God, No!
Penn Jilette

Entertaining, but a lot of unexpected depth to this one.

Cosmos
Carl Sagan

Inspiring

The Blind Watchmaker
Richard Dawkins

I have several of Dawkins’ books, but this is surely the most important?

The Justice Game
Geoffrey Robinson

Sport

Broadside
Stuart Broad

No Regrets
Steve Waugh

Twists and Turns
Matthew Mitcham

 

Autobiographical-general

Beautiful Boy
David Sheff

Empire of the Sun
JG Ballard

I mean, they based my favourite movie on this one…

Catch Me if You Can
Frank W Abagnale

Beautiful People
Simon Doonan

Unreliable Memoirs
Clive James

Fiction – General

The Hound of the Baskervilles
Arthur Conan Coyle

The one Sherlock Holmes book I really like….

The Halfmen of O
Maurice Gee

Classic young adult fantasy.

Kidnapped
Robert Louis Stevenson

My pick of his excellent collection of work.

The Once & Future King
TH White

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
JK Rowling

In my view the peak of this series.

The Magican’s Nephew
CS Lewis

The 6th book in the series, and in my view the best.

The Ancient Solitary Reign
Martin Hocke

A bizarre bit gripping story about a colony of owls…

Watership Down
Richard Adams

Its a classic….

On the Road
Jack Kerouac

Defining…

Animal Farm
George Orwell

In my view cleverer and more subtle than 1984, but I have them both and both worth a read.

The Picture of Doreian Grey
Oscar Wilde

The most brilliant work but this brilliant mind.

The Day of the Triffids
John Wyndham

Almost included Chocky, but went with this to represent Wyhndham collection of great books.

A Christmas Carol
Charles Dickens

Again, could just as easily have been Oliver Twist, but this is the Dickins I most come back to.

I, Claudius
Rupert Graves

Incredible novel set in the time of the early Ceasers.

We Need to Talk About Kevin
Lionel Shriver

Chilling. A mum struggles to raise a psychopathic child.

The Night of the Scorpion
Anthony Horowitz

Another piece of YL fiction of which I’m very fond.

Moby Dick
Herman Melville

As good as its reputation says.

Seven Little Australians
Ethel Turner

To Serve Them All My Days
RF Delderfield

Wonderful story of a school master between the wars.

Brideshead Revisited
Evelyn Waugh

Simply my favourite novel

Brave New World
Aldous Huxley

If you’re going to read one dystopian novel, make it this one!

 

Love, Simon
Becky Albertalli

Call Me By Your Name
Andre Aciman

 

Science Fiction

Star Trek: The Next Generation – Boogeymen
Mel Gilden

One of my favourite’s of this series, along with Q-in-Law. Both fun, capture the spirit of the show, and plenty of Wesley!

Star Trek: The Next Generation – Imazdi
Peter David

Easily the best of the “hardcover” novels from this time (although Reunion is a close second).

Star Trek: Prime Directive
Judith and Garfield Reeves-Stevens

Another favourite Trek book, this time from the original series.

Doctor Who novelisations:
– The Cave Monsters (Malcolm Hulke)
– The Dinosaur Invasion (Malcolm Hulke)
– Remembrance of the Dalerks (Ben Aaronovitch)

My top 3 of these books (yes, I have the full set).

Doctor Who: The New Adventures/The Missing Adventures
– Timewyrm: Exodus (Terrence Dicks)
– The Highest Science (Gareth Roberts)
– Bad Therepy (Matthew Jones)
– The Romance of Crime (Gareth Roberts)
– Killing Ground (Steve Lyons)

Again, my favourites of this range (and again, I have the complete sets!).

Lethbridge Stewart: The Laughing Gnome – Rise of the Dominator
Robert Mammone

A very involving original novel!

Blake’s 7
Trevor Hoyle

Novelisation of the first four epsiodes of my favourite TV series.

Life, the Universe, and Everything
Douglas Adams

ANY of Adams’ books could be on this list, but I’ve picked my favourite to represent him.

Red Dwarf Omnibus
Grant Naylor

This book goes way beyond the TV series, and is an incredable book in its own right.

Star Wars – The Timothy Zahn Thrawn Trilogy
– Heir to the Empire
– Dark Force Rising
– The Last Command

The best Star Wars story ever. Full stop.

 

Science Fiction Related Biography

JNT: The Life and Scandalous Times
Richard Marson

An amazing read, going into detail about Dr Who, its 1980s producer, but also just about UK television in general at that time.

Blue Box Boy
Matthew Waterhouse

Memories of the Future
Wil Wheaton

Child out of Time
Hayden Gribble

Thank you for reading!

At the end of this week, the United Kingdom leaves the European Union.

I wanted to make a few points, given a lot of the noise around this event over the last few years.

Firstly, following the result of the referendum itself, the Tory election victories on pro-Brexit platforms in 2017 and 2019 (the latter with a very clear majority on a very clear platform), and UKIP victories at the last two EU elections, it must be clear that this is the majority will of the British people.

Whilst remainers have attempted to paint leavers in a particularly way, and whilst the details of the May and Johnson deals have muddied a lot of water, I have always felt that the main desires of those in favour of leave were clear:

• That the elected Westminster Parliament remain the apex law making body for the UK, and not the EU Parliament;
• That the UK’s judiciary and justice system not be subject to EU law;
• That the UK have control of its own borders (to be exercised as strictly or liberally as the UK Parliament desires);
• That the UK should no longer be subject to the common agricultural and fisheries policies;
• That the UK be free of EU commission regulations and standards (noting of course that by choice the UK has higher standards in some areas);
• That the UK be free to pursue its own trade policy (especially with Australia); and
• That any future risks of the UK being pressured to join the Euro, or an EU standing army, be over.

All of this will happen on 31 January, of course noting some complications and nuances in the transition, and existing judicial arrangements.

 

History was Never on Europe’s Side

But this has been coming for a long time, and has never been a quirky push by a crazy minority (even if, unfortunately, some crazy – and at times outright xenophobic – groups were along for the ride).

I would contend that the UK has never been truly comfortable in Europe.

The EU’s clear policy is for an “ever closer union”. This is not what the UK signed up to in 1973, and does not sit comfortably with the history of England or Scotland.

The UK’s history has been defined in terms of resistance to Europe: Agincourt, the Spanish Armada, and the Battle of Britain all stand large in the story of England. They are a part of the legend by which the British define themselves. Not the whole story, but a key aspect.

In 1534 Henry VIII completed what was arguably the First Brexit, with the departure of England from the Roman Catholic Church. The creation of the King of England as the “supreme governor” of the Church has language echoes with the Brexit of 2020, and a shared desire with modern Brexit for English law and sovereignty not to be subject to decrees from Europe.

Sit-coms including “Yes, Minister” (the Euro-sausage!) and “The New Statesman” actively lampooned the EU 30 and 40 years ago, and importantly cast Euro-ideals and Euro-attitudes as being at variance with those of Britain.

Even in every day language, the British always referred to “the continent”, to distinguish their island from mainland Europe.

The UK was never, I contend, comfortable in the EU, and a separation was frankly inevitable.

But Brexit should not be cast as isolationist. Indeed, it permits the UK a greater role in NATO and the Commonwealth, and allows the UK to expand rather than reduce its free trade relationships.

It is telling that in the 1990s when President Clinton made overtures to the UK to join NAFTA, John Major would have been keen to accept were it not for the EU’s restrictions; a desire for a greater and freer international engagement stifled by the EU.

 

The Path to Brexit

The idea that the Brexit referendum was a folly of David Cameron, or of the Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party, also massively ignores the path UK politics took to the referendum, and the opportunities others had to take a different path.

In 2004 Tony Blair announced as policy a referendum on the UK signing on to the then-proposed EU Constitution. The Conservatives under Michael Howard supported this policy, so both major parties went to the 2005 election with promises of a referendum on any drafted EU constitution.

Every opinion poll in 2005 on this issue had the No vote winning. The constitution was shelved after both France and The Netherlands voted against it in their referendums.

The EU then brought much of the contents of this constitution forward as a re-branded Treaty of Lisbon. Indeed, a House of Commons research paper states that “the content of the treaty, though not its structure, is similar in a great many respects to the EU Constitution.”

The Opposition Conservative party under David Cameron was clear that their promise on the EU Constitution applied equally to the proposed Lisbon Treaty.

However, Labour – now led by Gordon Brown – signed the Treaty without a referendum.

The irony for Labour – and all remainers – is that had their promise been kept and a referendum held explicitly on whether the UK should sign up to the Lisbon Treaty, the 2016 “in-out” UK referendum would likely not have happened.

Indeed, a likely UK “No” would have followed the initial Irish “No” on Lisbon in 2008, and earlier rejections of the constitution by the French and Dutch. The combined effect may just have killed off Lisbon, and significantly slowed down the EU’s “ever closer union” policy, to the satisfaction of Britain.

Instead, Cameron and the Tories shifted their pledge to an “in-out” referendum on a re-negotiated EU deal for the UK.

This was put on hold by the LibDems in the coalition government of 2010-15, but remained a Tory election pledge in 2015; part of the platform on which Cameron won majority government. For Cameron not to then offer the vote would have been a breach of trust with the voters, and a failure to honour an election committment.

Once again, there is an irony that had the EU given Cameron some serious concessions in the re-negotiations, maybe – maybe – the Remain campaign would have won. Once again, EU stubbornness proved to be their own demise.

 

BUT!

Does anyone actually believe that had the 2016 referendum not happened, something between the EU and UK wouldn’t have snapped eventually?

In 1992 the acceptance of the Maastricht Treaty effectively destroyed John Major’s Government (and realistically would have presented similar unity challenges to a Kinnock Labour Gvt had they won the 1992 election). This is after the UK’s entry into the European Exchange Rate Mechanism played a part in ending Mrs Thatcher’s leadership (with the ERM then smashing the UK’s economy when they were forced out on Black Wednesday in 1992).

The UK (and Ireland) opted out of the Schengen Agreement (abolishing borders between EU member states) in 1997.

The UK (and Denmark) opted out of the Euro, confirming that decision finally in 2003.

The UK (along with Ireland and Denmark) also secured opt outs to the area of freedom, security and justice.

The UK negotiated significant concessions to various EU bail outs over the past 10-12 years.

Were the EU Constitution or the Treaty of Lisbon put to a referendum all evidence is that they would have failed.

Surely there can be no doubt that at some point the EU’s vision of an “ever closer union” and the UK’s resistance to that concept would have reached a breaking point in some form?

I remain convinced that were it not to have happened in 2016-2020, it would still have happened. Better then for the UK to get it done now, and indeed better for the EU for Brexit to have occurred as a specifically UK matter, and not as an event which may have brought about the collapse of a treaty.

Yes, the details have been difficult.

Yes, there have been isolationist and illiberal supporters of Brexit.

And yes, some of the Brexit details were toxically caught up in the ongoing battle for leadership of the conservative party (just witness the number of MPs who expressed un-nuanced resistance to Mrs May’s Deal, but equally un-nuanced support of Mr Johnson’s deal for evidence of this).

Yet the final result will fulfil the objectives I outlined at the start of this essay; objectives that I maintain are shared by the vast majority of “leavers”, and allow for a freer, more democratic, more liberal, and create a greater internationalist free-trading Britain.

Brexit is not a project of the hard right, and neither is it a project of Trumpist populism. Brexit is the logical continuation of the British liberal tradition of Pitt and Gladstone and Churchill.

 

Finally…

Finally, as someone who considers himself a democrat perhaps even more than I’d consider myself a liberal, I do have deep concern the view – often expressed over the last decade, both in the UK and Australia – which suggests that asking the people their views is – or was – a mistake, as the people may either get it wrong, or because free and open debate may be too difficult to handle.

Likewise I reject the contention that on Brexit specifically the people were deceived, or lacked the information. The intention of Brexit as I’ve outlined was always clear, the British people had a free and fair debate with all the information anyone could have wanted freely avaliable. The British people then voted for Brexit, and endorsed it again and again.

Perhaps these sentiments against democratic votes are the ultimate expression of the rhetorical elitism which finally made for leavers the prefect bogyman when campaigning against the EU?

The final irony.

With the US Presidential election this year, I’ve noticed that even more than ever most social media comments on outcomes are less a case of analysis of likely results, and more a statement of desired outcome dressed as a prediction. So, here’s a few posts that will aim to pull back on that a little.

(Part 1, the Democrat Primaries, was posted here: dksblog.com/2020/01/23/us-elections-part-1-the-democrat-primaries)

Today, Part 2 – the general election.

Let’s start with a few basic facts about the election in November between President Trump and his Democrat opponent:

1. Anyone who says they KNOW the result of the election is lying.
2. Is Trump far enough ahead in the polls to say a win for him is likely? No.
3. Is Trump far enough behind in the polls to say a loss for him is likely? No.
4. Anyone who says otherwise is either lying, ignorant, barracking, or some combination thereof. They’re also likely forecasting on the basis of their own views. And there’s nothing wrong with that, but it IS just a guess.

The reality is that the US remains a divided nation, and any win by either candidate in November is likely to be narrow by historical standards.

First, before anyone says “the polls were totally wrong in 2016” its important to remember that’s not quite correct. The national polls in 2016 predicted Clinton would win the popular vote by about 2-4 points. She did win the national popular vote by 2.1 points (or about 2.8m votes). However, several state based polls were out by a few points, leading to predictions of the Electoral College to be wrong (and a lot of people forgot our good friend “margin of error”).

Trump won with 46% of the vote, and by a margin of 38 electoral votes.

If the vote distribution across key states were PERFECT, Trump could probably win re-election with 44% of the vote, but more likely needs 45-46% at least.

Polling averages presently have him at:

Vs Biden – 44.2%

Vs Buttigieg – 44.8%

Vs Sanders – 45%

Vs Warren – 45.7%

Ie, Trump is exactly on the tipping point of too close to call.

And this is before there is an actual Democrat nominee running a proper campaign.

As above, the Democrats need to shift 38 electoral votes into their column. States in play (with 2016 margin are):

Michigan – 16 Votes – 0.2% margin

Pennsylvania – 20 Votes – 0.7% margin

Wisconsin – 10 votes – 0.8% margin

Flip those three with a 0.8% swing and Trump loses by 278-260.

Even if Trump can shift the Democrat’s most marginal state (New Hampshire, 0.4% margin) he loses 274-264.

The Democrat’s next most marginal state is Minnesota, and if Trump flips that he’s likely held the other mid-western states and winning easily.

Next on the list are:

Florida – 29 votes – 2.2% margin

Arizona – 11 votes – 3.5% margin

North Carolina – 15 votes – 5.1% margin

Further up the chain are Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa. But I suspect if the Democrats win any of those they’ve already won comfortably.

So let’s look at those states in the polls:

Michigan – Biden leads Trump by 6.5% on average. Sanders and Warren also lead.

Pennsylvania – Biden leads Trump by 7% on average. Sanders and Warren also lead.

Wisconsin – Biden leads Trump by 3.7% on average. Sanders also leads. Trump beats Warren by 1%.

Florida – Biden leads Trump by 2.7% on average. Sanders is tied. Trump leads Warren.

Arizona – Biden leads Trump by 0.3% on average. Trump leads Sanders by 5% and Warren by 2%.

North Carolina – Biden leads Trump by 3.4% on average. Sanders also leads, Trump beats Warren.

Georgia and Ohio there isn’t enough polling data to make a credible comment. In Texas Trump leads Biden by 0.5%. In Iowa Trump leads all candidates by 3% or more.

On the Democrat side in New Hampshire Biden leads Trump by 6%.

Now, this does NOT mean that I’m predicting Biden will defeat Trump 333-205.

Or that Sanders beats Trump 278-260.

Or that Trump will beat Warren 270-268.

But to reverse my questions above:

Do the Democrat candidates presently lead in the polls in enough states that they COULD win? Yes.

Are they so far ahead in enough states that they probably WILL win? No. Not at all.

We don’t know who the candidate will be. Or their running mate.

We haven’t had the national conventions.

And the formal campaign on both sides hasn’t started.

Plus… MARGIN OF ERROR.

So none of the above matters.

And my aim is not to make any prediction.

My aim is to prove that this race is WIDE open and anyone who says it’s not is talking emotional rubbish!

To further this, in the 2018 House of Representatives election, the popular vote went:

Republican – 44.8%

Democrat – 53.4%

A lead like that would certainly win the Electoral College for the Democrats.

 

In 2018 Senate races in key states:

Michigan – Democrats won 52%-46%

Pennsylvania – Democrats won 56%-43%

Wisconsin – Democrats won 55%-45%

Florida – Republicans won 50.06%-49.94%

Arizona – Democrats won 50%-48%

North Carolina – no election

Again, all this proves is that key states are in play. Nothing more.

 

There is a narrative that Trump has had enough wins to keep the 2016 Trump voters happy, and the Democrats are too far to the left, so Trump wins easily. That is possible.

There is a narrative that a Democrat who isn’t Clinton gets swing voters and anti-Trump Republicans who stayed home in 2016 out to vote, and the Democrats win. That is also possible.

We don’t know.

The only thing we know is that the election IS in play.

And I await comments on this post from people who have totally missed the whole point of the exercise 🙂

 

[Note – all averages as per Real Clear Politics]

 

With the US Presidential election this year, I’ve noticed that even more than ever most social media comments on outcomes are less a case of analysis of likely results, and more a statement of desired outcome dressed as a prediction. So, here’s a few posts that will aim to pull back on that a little.

Today, Part 1, the Democrat Primaries.

Candidates will compete in elections across the 50 states, DC, and other territories to win delegates to the nominating convention. 1,990 delegates assures a candidate of the nomination on the first ballot.

The Iowa caucuses are less than a month away, on Feb 3.
The New Hampshire Primary is Feb 11.
The Nevada Caucuses Feb 22.
The South Carolina Primary is Feb 29.

Below is a chart of the winners of Iowa/New Hamphsire/South Carolina since the modern system developed. Those who went on to be their party’s nominee are highlighted, and sitting Presidents seeking re-election are coloured grey.

There are essentially two ways to win the nomination. The first is to be the clear national leader, and convert that into multiple quick wins. If this occurs again, former Vice President Biden must be the favourite, presently being a full 10 points ahead of the rest of the field in the RCP polling average.

The other path is to slog it out state to state.

As you’ll see, every single nominee as won at least one of the states on the chart, oftentimes two.

The present leading candidates in those states are:
Iowa – Buttigieg
NH – Sanders
SC – Biden

Elizabeth Warren is polling 3rd nationally, however, she’s also polling 4th in Iowa, 4th in NH, and a very distant 2nd in SC. If Warren can’t win one of these Feb contests, I don’t see a path to her winning the nomination.

The ability to stay in the contest (and indeed, to organise and get out the vote for elections) depends on cash. The 4th quarter fundraising numbers for the top 4 candidates was:

Bernie Sanders: $34.5 million
Pete Buttigieg: $24.7 million
Joe Biden: $22.7 million
Elizabeth Warren: $21.2 million

This suggests if the early races split, there could be a longer fight, with candidates able to stay in the race.

HOWEVER!

March 3 is Super Tuesday. This includes races in California, Texas, Massachusetts, Maine, Missestoa, Vermont, and eight other (mostly southern) states. A sweep by a candidate in these (presumably Biden, given this perceived strength in the south) could effectively end the whole process.

Polls in these states at the moment are basically meaningless, as voters will shift based on the winners in the early states.

So, Biden remains the clear favourite.

If Buttigieg can win Iowa (polling leader) AND New Hampshire (polling second) its possible that the race becomes a “north v south” race between him an Biden, with Sanders winning the odd race here and there.

On the other hand if Sanders can knock Buttigieg out, that probably clears the field for Biden.

The only path for Sanders is that he wins the early states well enough to be a contender, but not SO well that clears the field; I contend Sanders does better in a split race.

Of course, the election watcher’s dream is that NO candidate can get the 1,990 delegates to lock in the nomination ahead of the convention, and its fought out old school on the floor (cf The West Wing season 6).

Is there a scenario where this happens? Sure. But parties have a way of getting things down to a two horse race, which makes the probability of one candidate getting a majority much higher.

A couple of general points:

Different states have different rules on who can vote. Some allow only registered Democrats, some allow registered Democrats AND independents, and some allow anyone to vote for the Democrat primary. Given there is not seriously contested Republican Primary, a lot of swinging voters/independents and some Republicans will vote in the races. This is an important balance to the “the Democrat activists have all swing to the left” contention.

Also, understand the Bloomberg is NOT on the ballot in NH, Nevada or SC, making Iowa his ONLY shot at an early win.

Final point: primary races are fluid. One really bad debate performance can end a candidate (ask Marco Rubio). Likewise an upset win can keep a candidate in long past expectation (cf Rick Santorum).

But again, multiple second places don’t get you the nomination. For a candidate to have a path, they really need an early WIN.

I’m taking a break from preparing my 2019 movie rankings to present my personal Top 10 Political TV shows. (Note that I’m excluding documentaries… maybe I should do a top 10 list of those?)

Honourable mentions to Spin City (which is fun and different, but lacks the gravitas to really make the list), State of Play (which is very good with an amazing cast, but struggle as a series which can be re-watched, as it relies so heavily on NOT knowing the twist), and Penelope Keith’s No Job for a Lady.

 

#10 – House of Cards (US).
(US, 2013-2018)

This is on the list ONLY for the first two seasons, which are brilliant enough to be worthy of the top 10. Season three is deathly boring, and after that it gets stupid. But the first two… amazingly good.

 

#9 – A Very English Scandal
(UK, 2018)

Russell T Davis writes a drama starring Hugh Grant and Ben Whishaw, featuring the real life scandal surrounding one time UK Liberal Party leader Jeremy Thorpe. RTD’s usual mix of wit and character.

 

#8 – The Alan Clark Diaries
(UK, 2004)

A small series that covers Clark’s time as a colourful Minister in the Thatcher and Major governments. John Hurt as the lead makes this series a delight to watch.

 

#7 – The Dismissal
(Australia, 1983)

The Australian dramatisation of the events leading up to the dismissal of the Whitlam Government in 1975. Rather than taking the cheap path and giving the audience “heroes” and “villains”, individuals as diverse as Rex Connor and Sir John Kerr are given real personalities, and their motivations explored. Even knowing the final outcome, the series builds the tension expertly, and Max Phipps & John Stanton are perfectly cast as Whitlam and Fraser, although Bill Hunter as Connor is the stand out, followed closely by John Hargreaves as Jim Cairns.

 

#6 – The New Statesman
(UK, 1987-1994)

Rik Mayell plays Tory MP Alan B’Stard… what more do you want?!

Its over the top and ridiculous, but hilarious.

Goes off the rails a little in season 3, but season 4 – where B’Stard becomes an MEP – is absolutely classic, puncturing the EU decisively.

 

#5 – The Thick of It
(UK, 2005-2012)

First and most importantly, this show is very, very funny. Peter Capaldi gives a career defining performance as Malcolm Tucker. But the way the show explores the relationship between Ministers, Advisors, and the Civil Service, adds an extra layer of delight to the show. The two special episodes “Rise of the Nutters” and “Spinners and Losers” are probably the peak of the show, although the final season dealing with the regulars in opposition and the new coalition Government also ends the show on a high. Capaldi’s performance in the final episode is as good as anything you’ll see on TV.

 

#4 – The West Wing
(US – 1999-2006)

Another show defined by quotable dialogue and wonderful characters, it’s not a shock that every one of the regular actors from The West Wing has gone on to considerable success. A little too idealistic to make the top 3, this is a show I can re-watch again and again, although it affords the preachiness of Sorkin’s The Newsroom. It hits the ground running with a brilliant first season, and the episodes around “Election Night” in season 4 are worthy of mention, although season 6 – as the show explores the primary process – remains my favourite. Toby remains my favourite character, and “The Supremes” my favourite episode.

 

#3 – Party Animals
(UK, 2007)

A very little known show, I maintain my view that this is the political show which most accurately reflects the realities of working in politics – the amazing highs mixed with the sheer drudgery. Made during the early period of the Brown Government, it reflects a Labour Party in decline, and the spasms of a Tory Party grabbling with a new generation of modernisers (complete with gay staffers) wrestling with the old guard for control. It also brings into the drama the role of lobbyists, and the personal costs of politics.

 

#2 – Yes, Minister/Yes, Prime Minister
(UK, 1980-1988)

The show which first sparked my interest in politics, it remains as funny and relevant now as it was in the 1980s, when it was famously Mrs Thatcher’s favourite show. As the show progresses the relationship between Minister Jim Hacker and Permanent Secretary Sir Humphrey Appleby grows and allows both wins and losses, helping the longevity of the series… not to mention amazing dialogue! Probably hits its peak with the run of episodes in the first season of Yes, Prime Minister which include “A Victory for Democracy”, “The Bishop’s Gambit” and “One of Us”, and the quality continues in season two with “Man Overboard” and Official Secrets”.

#1 – House of Cards (UK)
(UK – 1990-1995)

I’m including all three seasons of this trilogy – House of Cards, To Play the King, & The Final Cut.

A defining 1990s drama, with Ian Richardson as Tory frontbencher Francis “FU” Urquhart. The show picks up with the fall of Mrs Thatcher as Prime Minister, and mixes real drama with and understanding of politics, albeit far exaggerated for dramatic effect, as FU seeks the leadership of the party. The best of the series is certainly To Play the King, with Urquhart facing down the new King (a thinly veiled analogue of Prince Charles, complete with his own “Diana”, “Sarah Ferguson” and “Prince William”), played by Michael Kitchen.

Brilliant television set in the Palace of Westminster.

 

It’s around 18 months now since I did my first Top 100 movies list, so time for an update.

The rankings are very much my own, based on both how good I think the film is, but also how much I enjoy it, and how well I think it stands up to repeated viewings.

Rather than have movies drop off, I’ve expanded to 123 movies. There are plenty of new entries, some because I’ve seen them since I did the first list, some because on reflection that deserved to make the cut.

Following the movie title I’ve noted where it was on the previous list.

My top 5 has stayed unchanged, but two new films have broken into the Top 10, and an old classic has risen in there.

A number of movies have drifted up the list with further viewings – Argo jumps from 44 to 27, and Galaxy Quest rises from 26 to 17. Catch Me If You Can jumps from 43 to 31.

Some films have been pushed down the list only to make room for new entrees above them. On the other hand other films have faded with time, sometimes because removed from the impact of the first viewing they don’t hold up quite as well.

In terms of actors and actresses…

Matt Damon continues to do well, placing at 2, 10, 24, 64, 89.

Newcomer Lucas Hedges is placed at 7, 15, 33.

Alan Rickman likely has the most entries, with 10, 17, 30, 35, 41, 83.

Robin Williams places at 2, 34, 87.

Saoirse Ronan is one of the best actresses, with films at 7, 15, 100.

Sigourney Weaver has three films, 17, 49, 107.

Emma Thompson also has three entries, 35, 45, 56

Dane DeHaan, Denzel Washington, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ryan Gosling, Timothee Chalemet and a number of others all also have multiple entries.

Anyway, here’s the list…

1. Empire of the Sun (1)
2. Good Will Hunting (2)
3. American Pie (3)
4. Cruel Intentions (4)
5. A Few Good Men (5)
6. Jurassic Park (12)
7. Lady Bird (new)
8. Sing Street (7)
9. Love, Simon (new)
10. Dogma (10)
11. Summersturm (8)
12. Call Me By Your Name (new)
13. The Perks of Being a Wallflower (6)
14. The Big Short (15)
15. Manchester By The Sea (25)
16. Brooklyn (8)
17. Galaxy Quest (26)
18. The Social Network (13)
19. Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country (14)
20. Edge of Seventeen [1998] (21)
21. Up In the Air (41)
22. Star Wars V: The Empire Strikes Back (20)
23. The Place Beyond the Pines (24)
24. The Talented Mr Ripley (11)
25. Boyhood (17)
26. Jaws (32)
27. Argo (44)
28. Chronicle (18)
29. We Need To Talk About Kevin (19)
30. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (28)
31. Catch Me If You Can (43)
32. The Basketball Diaries (22)
33. Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri (new)
34. Dead Poet’s Society (27)
35. Love, Actually (33)
36. The American President (35)
37. Crimson Tide (42)
38. Nowhere Boy (40)
39. Detroit (new)
40. The Way, Way Back (39)
41. Harry Potter & the Half Blood Prince (new)
42. Pleasantville (16)
43. Neverending Story (23)
44. The Muppet Movie (30)
45. Primary Colors (38)
46. Jurassic Park II (new)
47. Stand By Me (45)
48. Milk (31)
49. Paul (34)
50. (500) Days of Summer (36)
51. Monty Python’s Life of Brian (new)
52. Jurassic World (new)
53. Inside Out (37)
54. Conspiracy (55)
55. Thor: Ragnorok (new)
56. Saving Mr Banks (49)
57. Evita (53)
58. My Own Private Idaho (29)
59. Chariots of Fire (47)
60. First Man (new)
61. Help! (48)
62. Philadelphia (50)
63. Star Wars VI: Return of the Jedi (56)
64. The Martian (59)
65. Pride (51)
66. Signs (68)
67. Downfall (52)
68. The Great Dictator (54)
69. Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan (71)
70. The Lion King (70)
71. The Rock (57)
72. The Emperor’s Club (67)
73. Star Wars
74. It [2017] (new)
75. Love and Mercy (58)
76. Silence of the Lambs (60)
77. Kingsmen (61)
78. Clerks (74)
79. Avengers: Infinity War (new)
80. Juno (62)
81. Holding the Man (63)
82. Paper Towns (64)
83. Beaches (65)
84. Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone (69)
85. The History Boys (85)
86. Kill Your Darlings (72)
87. Moonlight (new)
88. What Dreams May Come (46)
89. Running on Empty (73)
90. Invictus (86)
91. War for the Planet of the Apes (new)
92. Into the Wild (76)
93. The Blues Brothers (77)
94. In the Loop (78)
95. Star Trek VI: The Voyage Home (84)
96. Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi (new)
97. Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens (75)
98. Remember the Titans (89)
99. Money Ball (88)
100. Rogue 1: A Star Wars Story (79)
101. How I Live Now (80)
102. Truman (97)
103. Mysterious Skin (98)
104. Dr Who and the Daleks (100)
105. Prayers for Bobby (81)
106. Ender’s Game (82)
107. Batman [1989] (83)
108. Alien (new)
109. Deep Blue Sea (87)
110. Full Metal Jacket (90)
111. Dr Strangelove (new)
112. Nixon (91)
113. The Deal (92)
114. Serenity (93)
115. Ready Player One (new)
116. King Kong [1933] (94)
117. Starship Troopers (95)
118. 2001: A Space Odyssey (new)
119. The Queen (96)
120. God’s Own Country (new)
121. Lord of the Flies (99)
122. Spiderman: Homecoming (new)
123. Dalek Invasion Earth 2150AD