It’s that time of year where I do my Oscar-eve thoughts on who I want to win, and who I think will win, “Christmas for Movie Lovers”, aka The Academy Awards.

Following on from an incredibly strong set of nominees a year ago, 2018’s field includes another set of wonderful films. Hopefully my thoughts will encourage you to see some of them that you may have missed.

But to the nominees…

 

Best Picture

This year is perhaps the most even race for Best Picture in a long time; there are multiple really good films here, and none have really embedded themselves in the zeitgeist as a clear favourite. Mind you, Lala Land was the clear favourite last year, and lost (after a false start!) to the excellent Moonlight.

Note also that Best Picture is not decided by a straight vote, but a preferential one, so the winning movies needs to place well in the first ballot but also get a number of 2^nd and 3^rd preference votes.

My personal pick is Call Me By Your Name, which I think is everything an Oscar movie should be; a lovely story, beautifully shot, with amazing actors.

Whilst it has a chance to win (mostly because it will be on a lot of lists as a top 3 pick even when not first pick), you have to assume Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water is the favourite. However, it is a very “strange” movie which includes a love scene between a woman and a fish creature, and so might not appeal to some of the older and more conservative members of the academy, and may find it’s either at the top of voters’ lists or the bottom, lacking the 2^nd and 3^rd votes to win in an evenly divided field.

Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri is another great film with a terrific cast that I’d be happy to see win, although the way it deals with its racist characters has resulted in a bit of a backlash amongst the sort of people that use the word “problematic” a lot in sentences. Sadly, lots of those sort of people vote in the academy.

I personally think that Lady Bird is a gorgeous and touching movie I love a lot, but I also don’t think its special or different enough to be worthy of the Oscar. What sets Lady Bird apart is very much the performances of three up-and-coming young actors and actresses who have all been Oscar nominations already in their careers: Lucas Hedges, Saoirse Ronan, and Timothée Chalamet. All of them talents to watch.

Dunkirk deserves awards for its production, but in my opinion lacks the depth of performances to make it an Oscar winner for Best Picture.

Darkest Hour has a chance, although I’m not a fan of its simplistic and broad strokes, and The Post is nice but nothing at all special.

Get Out would be a surprise choice, and The Phantom Thread a decisive one.

 

Best Director

Whilst I wouldn’t give The Shape of Water the Best Picture award, I’m happy to give Guillermo del Toro the Best Director award. His work here is amazingly good, and he draws out some excellent performances.

We may find that a lot of the academy do the same, giving him recognition as Director without voting for his movie.

Christopher Nolan is also in with a good chance here for Dunkirk.

 

Best Actor

Thomthée Chalamet as Eilo in Call Me By Your Name is easily my pick, for a heartbreaking performance. He almost certainly won’t win, though.

Gary Oldman seems to be the favourite for his role as Churchill in Darkest Hour, which I think owes more to the makeup than the performance. However, the academy have a habit of threating these as de facto “lifetime” awards, and this could be Oldman’s one.

Daniel Kaluuya as Chris in Get Out would be a wonderful surprise win.

 

Best Actress

This is one category where I think my pick is also the favourite, and that’s Frances McDormand as Mildred in Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri. Her performance is gut wrenching but sympathetic, and really does hold the movie together.

Margot Robbie in I, Tonya could be the dark horse in this race.

Whilst Meryl Streep is again nominated, I think her turn as Katharine Graham in The Post is far from her best work, and indeed, she makes what I’d say are some interesting creative choices in her performance in this movie.

 

Best Supporting Actor

I’m fairly confident that someone from Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri will win this. This question is will it be Woody Harrelson as Chief Wiloughby, or Sam Rockwell as Officer Dixon.

My vote goes to Harrelson, but only just. Both are excellent performances, and for Rockwell arguably career defining.

Christopher Plummer was nominated for not being Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World, but I can’t see him winning.

If the “Billboard” nominees split the vote, I can see a scenario where Willem Dafoe wins for The Florida Project.

 

Best Supporting Actress

The sublime Allison Janney is the unbackable favourite for her role as LaVona Golden in I, Tonya. And deservedly so.

I’d be equally happy with Laurie Metcalf won for Marion in Lady Bird.

 

Best Original Screenplay

This is a hard one to pick.

Get Out is probably the most inventive, and so I think has a slight edge.

Whilst I love Lady Bird, it’s the performances that lift that more than the script.

Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri has a chance, subject of course to the backlash I mentioned above.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name is my pick, and I think this is the one award the film will actually win tomorrow.

The Disaster Artist was a very fun film, but I can’t see the academy voting for it.

Likewise Logan isn’t really the sort of movie that gets picked for Oscars.

 

Of the other awards….

I haven’t seen any of the nominees for Best Animated Feature Film, but Coco is surely the clear favourite.

There’s a lot of buzz around for Icarus for Best Documentary.

Hans Zimmer is the favourite for Dunkirk for Best Soundtrack, and also my pick, although I wouldn’t rule out Alexandre Desplat’s work on The Shape of Water. John Williams also got a nomination for Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

Best Original Song will surely go to ‘This is Me’ from The Greatest Showman.

Best Sound Editing I’d love to see Baby Driver win, but Dunkirk is more likely, and the same goes for Best Sound Mixing.

Best Cinematography is a hard one this year. I’d personally go for the amazing work on Blade Runner 2049 (easily the best aspect of that film). Dunkirk has a very good chance, as indeed does The Shape of Water.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling will go to the time from Darkest Hour; lock that one in.

Almost as big a certainty is the team from Beauty and the Beast winning Best Costume Design.

Best Film Editing I again pick Baby Driver, in the full expectation it’ll be won on the night by Dunkirk, whilst Best Visual Effects I think should go to War for the Planet of the Apes.

The Oscars always pull a few surprises, and can sometimes make a point of sharing arounds around, something I think we’ll see this year.

But we’ll find out tomorrow!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tassie elections are fascinating, and hard to predict, as they not only use a Senate style Hare-Clark system with five members each elected in five electorates, but voters are required to cast ballots for individual candidates rather than tickets. Indeed, even on the ballot people the order of candidates on party lists is randomised, making voting according to party ticket harder.

Each individual candidate requires 16.7% of the vote to be elected, with surplus votes and preferences distributed until five are elected in each electorate. When assessing how many from each party will be elected, one thing I’m focusing on is where the preferences might come from to decide the final seat.

To win majority Government, a party requires 2 seats in 2 electorates and 3 in the other 3, given them thirteen in total.

All independent polling (and what we’ve seen of leaked internal polling) has the Liberals in front in the low-to-mid 40s, Labor in the low 30s, and the Greens at or below 10%.

The Jackie Lambie Network is contesting three electorates, but has seen its vote decline across the campaign and is unlikely to win any seats, especially if their vote is split between several local candidates in each electorate and there is a lack of ticketing discipline from JLN voters.

The Liberals have won only six elections in Tasmania since their creation, and only four of those have been majorities. Robin Gray is the only Liberal leader to win two majority terms; will that change today?

The Greens have held the balance of power three times in Tasmania, twice supporting the ALP, and once supporting a minority Liberal Government. Each of this period proved disastrous, and each saw the party which dealt with the Greens losing the next election, usually heavily.

This record has tended to see Tasmanian swing voters get behind the party most likely to form Government to ensure a strong majority government can be formed in preference to a Green controlled minority.  In 2018 this should assist the Liberals.

Both major parties have refused to work with the Greens.

The last time this happened the ALP broke their word, and formed a coalition with the Greens.

The time before that the Liberal Premier kept his word and resigned the leadership, allowing a new leader to form a minority Government with Green support.

Should there be a hung Parliament this time there is no certainty as to what would happen, however, with the Tasmanian Greens now more left than ever and already promising to move a no confidence motion against the Hodgeman Government in the new House of Assembly, it seems certain the Liberals can only win a second term if they win the thirteen seats required for a majority.

But to the seats….

 

Denison:

Covering Hobart proper, this is the Liberal’s weakest electorate and the Greens’ best (its represented by crazy Independent Andrew Wilkie Federally).

Present: 2 Liberal, 2 ALP, 1 Green

In 2014 the Liberals got a combined 38.3% of the vote, with the popular local member Matthew Groom (son of former Premier Ray Groom) receiving a strong personal vote.

Groom is not standing at this election, and likely any swing against the Liberals will be strongest here.

Labor is led in Denison by Scott Bacon (shadow Treasurer, and son of former Premier Jim Bacon) and both ALP incumbents are standing again.

The Green’s incumbent is their State leader, Cassy O’Connor (arguably the most lefty-trendy leader of the Tasmanian Greens to date, and that list includes Christine Milne and Nick McKim!). I suspect O’Connor’s style of Green politics will play badly in the rest of the State which embraced Bob Brown’s environmental activism but isn’t very “suburban trendy”, but it will ensure a strong Green vote here.

JLN isn’t contesting Denison.

If the Liberals can hold the swing against them to 5% they’ll win 2 seats without needing preferences. Just.

If they drop much below 33% though there is a slight danger that Greens’ preferences will elect a 3^rd ALP MP, reducing the Liberals to 1. But if polling is correct this is unlikely; the Liberals won 2 Denison seats in 2010 after all.

Prediction: no change – 2 Liberals, 2 ALP, 1 Green

However, if on early counting the Liberals aren’t clearly winning the 2^nd seat, that makes majority tough.

 

Bass

Launceston, and the north-east corner of Tasmania, AKA God’s Country.

Present: 3 Liberal, 1 ALP, 1 Green

All incumbents are running again.

JNL is contesting.

The Liberals got over 58% there last election, and even with a swing against them I think will hold their 3 seats.

I’m predicting the Greens lose their seat to the ALP.

Prediction: 3 Liberals, 2 ALP.

(If the Liberals aren’t getting the 3^rd seat here, they’re not getting anything like a majority).

 

Braddon

Davenport, Burnie, King Island and the west coast.

At the last election there was a freak result with the Liberals winning 4 seats, and the ALP 1 (Bryan Green, who led Labor for a time in Opposition before being rolled and retiring from Parliament).

All 4 Liberals, and the replacement ALP member, are recontesting.

JLN is contesting and this is expected to be their best electorate. However, its unlikely to be enough to get a quota; even if their combined result gets the leading JLN candidate to 8-9%, I can’t see where they’d get preferences get to the necessary 16.7%.

Also contesting is the “Tasmanians 4 Tasmania” party, who don’t have a lot of policies and spelt “Tasmanians” wrong on their Facebook page.

Nevertheless even if the Liberal vote drops below 50% there should be plenty of preferences in the mix to get a 3rd Liberal elected.

However, the freak result will not be repeated and the Liberals will lose 1 seat, I expect to the ALP; I don’t see the Green vote being high enough to win a seat, but its not entirely impossible that they could be closer after preferences to a 1^st quota than the ALP is to a 2^nd and win with ALP preferences.

Prediction: 3 Liberals, 2 ALP.

(Again, if the Liberals aren’t getting the 3^rd seat here, they’re not getting anything like a majority).

 

Franklin

The bits of the south that aren’t Hobart.

Present: 3 Liberal, 1 ALP, 1 Green

If the Liberals hold their two in Denison and win three in both Bass and Braddon, then they need a 3^rd in either Franklin or Lyons to get their majority.

Early on I’d thought Lyons was the more likely of the two to deliver that (and still do), but polls suggest Franklin could be a better bet.

In 2014 all three party leaders were contesting Franklin. Only Will Hodgeman is still in Parliament four years later, with Lara Giddings and Nick McKim moving on.

Hodgeman’s personal vote will certainly help the Liberals here.

There are only four 4 parties contesting Franklin: the three majors, and the Shooters Farmers Fishers.

I’m confident that Liberals will easily get 2.

The ALP will easily get 1.

The Greens should hold their 1.

The 5^th seat is hard to pick, and potentially election deciding.

With only 4 parties, the reality is that the combined vote of the Liberals and Shooters needs to be at 50% to get the Liberals that 3^rd seat, unless there’s a lot of ALP voters putting Liberal candidates above the Greens (not impossible).

Prediction: 2 Liberals, 2 ALP, 1 Green.

The 5^th seat here a key seat. If the Liberals win it, it will likely be on the back of personal votes for individual incumbants.

(As a side note, if the Greens do only win seats in Denison and Franklin, this will be a terrible result for them not only because they’ll only have two seats, but because they’ll be reduced to a metropolitan left party unable to win outside the city in their best State.)

 

Lyons

All the bits of Tasmania in the middle that aren’t in other seats.

Present: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor.

The three incumbent Liberals are running, and I think with JNL, Shooters and a couple of independents in the mix, there will be enough preferences to get a 3^rd Liberal elected.

Opposition Leader and Jacinda Ardern wannabe Rebecca White is leading the ALP campaign here, and I think will ensure that two ALP members are elected, rather than a Green.

Prediction: 3 Liberals, 2 ALP

If the Liberals underperform, they could drop the 3^rd seat here, and possibly Government with it.

 

Overall prediction:

Liberals: 13 (down 2)

ALP: 10 (up 3)

Greens: 2 (down 1)

 

A better performance in Franklin gives the Liberals a chance at a 14^th seat.

A worse performance in Denison or Lyons would give the ALP and the Greens 13.