Tassie elections are fascinating, and hard to predict, as they not only use a Senate style Hare-Clark system with five members each elected in five electorates, but voters are required to cast ballots for individual candidates rather than tickets. Indeed, even on the ballot people the order of candidates on party lists is randomised, making voting according to party ticket harder.
Each individual candidate requires 16.7% of the vote to be elected, with surplus votes and preferences distributed until five are elected in each electorate. When assessing how many from each party will be elected, one thing I’m focusing on is where the preferences might come from to decide the final seat.
To win majority Government, a party requires 2 seats in 2 electorates and 3 in the other 3, given them thirteen in total.
All independent polling (and what we’ve seen of leaked internal polling) has the Liberals in front in the low-to-mid 40s, Labor in the low 30s, and the Greens at or below 10%.
The Jackie Lambie Network is contesting three electorates, but has seen its vote decline across the campaign and is unlikely to win any seats, especially if their vote is split between several local candidates in each electorate and there is a lack of ticketing discipline from JLN voters.
The Liberals have won only six elections in Tasmania since their creation, and only four of those have been majorities. Robin Gray is the only Liberal leader to win two majority terms; will that change today?
The Greens have held the balance of power three times in Tasmania, twice supporting the ALP, and once supporting a minority Liberal Government. Each of this period proved disastrous, and each saw the party which dealt with the Greens losing the next election, usually heavily.
This record has tended to see Tasmanian swing voters get behind the party most likely to form Government to ensure a strong majority government can be formed in preference to a Green controlled minority. In 2018 this should assist the Liberals.
Both major parties have refused to work with the Greens.
The last time this happened the ALP broke their word, and formed a coalition with the Greens.
The time before that the Liberal Premier kept his word and resigned the leadership, allowing a new leader to form a minority Government with Green support.
Should there be a hung Parliament this time there is no certainty as to what would happen, however, with the Tasmanian Greens now more left than ever and already promising to move a no confidence motion against the Hodgeman Government in the new House of Assembly, it seems certain the Liberals can only win a second term if they win the thirteen seats required for a majority.
But to the seats….
Denison:
Covering Hobart proper, this is the Liberal’s weakest electorate and the Greens’ best (its represented by crazy Independent Andrew Wilkie Federally).
Present: 2 Liberal, 2 ALP, 1 Green
In 2014 the Liberals got a combined 38.3% of the vote, with the popular local member Matthew Groom (son of former Premier Ray Groom) receiving a strong personal vote.
Groom is not standing at this election, and likely any swing against the Liberals will be strongest here.
Labor is led in Denison by Scott Bacon (shadow Treasurer, and son of former Premier Jim Bacon) and both ALP incumbents are standing again.
The Green’s incumbent is their State leader, Cassy O’Connor (arguably the most lefty-trendy leader of the Tasmanian Greens to date, and that list includes Christine Milne and Nick McKim!). I suspect O’Connor’s style of Green politics will play badly in the rest of the State which embraced Bob Brown’s environmental activism but isn’t very “suburban trendy”, but it will ensure a strong Green vote here.
JLN isn’t contesting Denison.
If the Liberals can hold the swing against them to 5% they’ll win 2 seats without needing preferences. Just.
If they drop much below 33% though there is a slight danger that Greens’ preferences will elect a 3rd ALP MP, reducing the Liberals to 1. But if polling is correct this is unlikely; the Liberals won 2 Denison seats in 2010 after all.
Prediction: no change – 2 Liberals, 2 ALP, 1 Green
However, if on early counting the Liberals aren’t clearly winning the 2nd seat, that makes majority tough.
Bass
Launceston, and the north-east corner of Tasmania, AKA God’s Country.
Present: 3 Liberal, 1 ALP, 1 Green
All incumbents are running again.
JNL is contesting.
The Liberals got over 58% there last election, and even with a swing against them I think will hold their 3 seats.
I’m predicting the Greens lose their seat to the ALP.
Prediction: 3 Liberals, 2 ALP.
(If the Liberals aren’t getting the 3rd seat here, they’re not getting anything like a majority).
Braddon
Davenport, Burnie, King Island and the west coast.
At the last election there was a freak result with the Liberals winning 4 seats, and the ALP 1 (Bryan Green, who led Labor for a time in Opposition before being rolled and retiring from Parliament).
All 4 Liberals, and the replacement ALP member, are recontesting.
JLN is contesting and this is expected to be their best electorate. However, its unlikely to be enough to get a quota; even if their combined result gets the leading JLN candidate to 8-9%, I can’t see where they’d get preferences get to the necessary 16.7%.
Also contesting is the “Tasmanians 4 Tasmania” party, who don’t have a lot of policies and spelt “Tasmanians” wrong on their Facebook page.
Nevertheless even if the Liberal vote drops below 50% there should be plenty of preferences in the mix to get a 3rd Liberal elected.
However, the freak result will not be repeated and the Liberals will lose 1 seat, I expect to the ALP; I don’t see the Green vote being high enough to win a seat, but its not entirely impossible that they could be closer after preferences to a 1st quota than the ALP is to a 2nd and win with ALP preferences.
Prediction: 3 Liberals, 2 ALP.
(Again, if the Liberals aren’t getting the 3rd seat here, they’re not getting anything like a majority).
Franklin
The bits of the south that aren’t Hobart.
Present: 3 Liberal, 1 ALP, 1 Green
If the Liberals hold their two in Denison and win three in both Bass and Braddon, then they need a 3rd in either Franklin or Lyons to get their majority.
Early on I’d thought Lyons was the more likely of the two to deliver that (and still do), but polls suggest Franklin could be a better bet.
In 2014 all three party leaders were contesting Franklin. Only Will Hodgeman is still in Parliament four years later, with Lara Giddings and Nick McKim moving on.
Hodgeman’s personal vote will certainly help the Liberals here.
There are only four 4 parties contesting Franklin: the three majors, and the Shooters Farmers Fishers.
I’m confident that Liberals will easily get 2.
The ALP will easily get 1.
The Greens should hold their 1.
The 5th seat is hard to pick, and potentially election deciding.
With only 4 parties, the reality is that the combined vote of the Liberals and Shooters needs to be at 50% to get the Liberals that 3rd seat, unless there’s a lot of ALP voters putting Liberal candidates above the Greens (not impossible).
Prediction: 2 Liberals, 2 ALP, 1 Green.
The 5th seat here a key seat. If the Liberals win it, it will likely be on the back of personal votes for individual incumbants.
(As a side note, if the Greens do only win seats in Denison and Franklin, this will be a terrible result for them not only because they’ll only have two seats, but because they’ll be reduced to a metropolitan left party unable to win outside the city in their best State.)
Lyons
All the bits of Tasmania in the middle that aren’t in other seats.
Present: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor.
The three incumbent Liberals are running, and I think with JNL, Shooters and a couple of independents in the mix, there will be enough preferences to get a 3rd Liberal elected.
Opposition Leader and Jacinda Ardern wannabe Rebecca White is leading the ALP campaign here, and I think will ensure that two ALP members are elected, rather than a Green.
Prediction: 3 Liberals, 2 ALP
If the Liberals underperform, they could drop the 3rd seat here, and possibly Government with it.
Overall prediction:
Liberals: 13 (down 2)
ALP: 10 (up 3)
Greens: 2 (down 1)
A better performance in Franklin gives the Liberals a chance at a 14th seat.
A worse performance in Denison or Lyons would give the ALP and the Greens 13.
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