It’s that time of year where I do my Oscar-eve thoughts on who I want to win, and who I think will win, “Christmas for Movie Lovers”, aka The Academy Awards.

Following on from an incredibly strong set of nominees a year ago, 2018’s field includes another set of wonderful films. Hopefully my thoughts will encourage you to see some of them that you may have missed.

But to the nominees…

 

Best Picture

This year is perhaps the most even race for Best Picture in a long time; there are multiple really good films here, and none have really embedded themselves in the zeitgeist as a clear favourite. Mind you, Lala Land was the clear favourite last year, and lost (after a false start!) to the excellent Moonlight.

Note also that Best Picture is not decided by a straight vote, but a preferential one, so the winning movies needs to place well in the first ballot but also get a number of 2^nd and 3^rd preference votes.

My personal pick is Call Me By Your Name, which I think is everything an Oscar movie should be; a lovely story, beautifully shot, with amazing actors.

Whilst it has a chance to win (mostly because it will be on a lot of lists as a top 3 pick even when not first pick), you have to assume Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water is the favourite. However, it is a very “strange” movie which includes a love scene between a woman and a fish creature, and so might not appeal to some of the older and more conservative members of the academy, and may find it’s either at the top of voters’ lists or the bottom, lacking the 2^nd and 3^rd votes to win in an evenly divided field.

Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri is another great film with a terrific cast that I’d be happy to see win, although the way it deals with its racist characters has resulted in a bit of a backlash amongst the sort of people that use the word “problematic” a lot in sentences. Sadly, lots of those sort of people vote in the academy.

I personally think that Lady Bird is a gorgeous and touching movie I love a lot, but I also don’t think its special or different enough to be worthy of the Oscar. What sets Lady Bird apart is very much the performances of three up-and-coming young actors and actresses who have all been Oscar nominations already in their careers: Lucas Hedges, Saoirse Ronan, and Timothée Chalamet. All of them talents to watch.

Dunkirk deserves awards for its production, but in my opinion lacks the depth of performances to make it an Oscar winner for Best Picture.

Darkest Hour has a chance, although I’m not a fan of its simplistic and broad strokes, and The Post is nice but nothing at all special.

Get Out would be a surprise choice, and The Phantom Thread a decisive one.

 

Best Director

Whilst I wouldn’t give The Shape of Water the Best Picture award, I’m happy to give Guillermo del Toro the Best Director award. His work here is amazingly good, and he draws out some excellent performances.

We may find that a lot of the academy do the same, giving him recognition as Director without voting for his movie.

Christopher Nolan is also in with a good chance here for Dunkirk.

 

Best Actor

Thomthée Chalamet as Eilo in Call Me By Your Name is easily my pick, for a heartbreaking performance. He almost certainly won’t win, though.

Gary Oldman seems to be the favourite for his role as Churchill in Darkest Hour, which I think owes more to the makeup than the performance. However, the academy have a habit of threating these as de facto “lifetime” awards, and this could be Oldman’s one.

Daniel Kaluuya as Chris in Get Out would be a wonderful surprise win.

 

Best Actress

This is one category where I think my pick is also the favourite, and that’s Frances McDormand as Mildred in Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri. Her performance is gut wrenching but sympathetic, and really does hold the movie together.

Margot Robbie in I, Tonya could be the dark horse in this race.

Whilst Meryl Streep is again nominated, I think her turn as Katharine Graham in The Post is far from her best work, and indeed, she makes what I’d say are some interesting creative choices in her performance in this movie.

 

Best Supporting Actor

I’m fairly confident that someone from Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri will win this. This question is will it be Woody Harrelson as Chief Wiloughby, or Sam Rockwell as Officer Dixon.

My vote goes to Harrelson, but only just. Both are excellent performances, and for Rockwell arguably career defining.

Christopher Plummer was nominated for not being Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World, but I can’t see him winning.

If the “Billboard” nominees split the vote, I can see a scenario where Willem Dafoe wins for The Florida Project.

 

Best Supporting Actress

The sublime Allison Janney is the unbackable favourite for her role as LaVona Golden in I, Tonya. And deservedly so.

I’d be equally happy with Laurie Metcalf won for Marion in Lady Bird.

 

Best Original Screenplay

This is a hard one to pick.

Get Out is probably the most inventive, and so I think has a slight edge.

Whilst I love Lady Bird, it’s the performances that lift that more than the script.

Three Billboards Outside Epping, Missouri has a chance, subject of course to the backlash I mentioned above.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me By Your Name is my pick, and I think this is the one award the film will actually win tomorrow.

The Disaster Artist was a very fun film, but I can’t see the academy voting for it.

Likewise Logan isn’t really the sort of movie that gets picked for Oscars.

 

Of the other awards….

I haven’t seen any of the nominees for Best Animated Feature Film, but Coco is surely the clear favourite.

There’s a lot of buzz around for Icarus for Best Documentary.

Hans Zimmer is the favourite for Dunkirk for Best Soundtrack, and also my pick, although I wouldn’t rule out Alexandre Desplat’s work on The Shape of Water. John Williams also got a nomination for Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

Best Original Song will surely go to ‘This is Me’ from The Greatest Showman.

Best Sound Editing I’d love to see Baby Driver win, but Dunkirk is more likely, and the same goes for Best Sound Mixing.

Best Cinematography is a hard one this year. I’d personally go for the amazing work on Blade Runner 2049 (easily the best aspect of that film). Dunkirk has a very good chance, as indeed does The Shape of Water.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling will go to the time from Darkest Hour; lock that one in.

Almost as big a certainty is the team from Beauty and the Beast winning Best Costume Design.

Best Film Editing I again pick Baby Driver, in the full expectation it’ll be won on the night by Dunkirk, whilst Best Visual Effects I think should go to War for the Planet of the Apes.

The Oscars always pull a few surprises, and can sometimes make a point of sharing arounds around, something I think we’ll see this year.

But we’ll find out tomorrow!